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This New Diet Trend will Change Your Life! Until the Next One

Part 1:

One of my favorite podcasts to listen to is called Science Vs. The format of the podcast is that they take a serious and well researched look into scientific stories or topics that are trending in the news or on social media. It’s an entertaining yet informative podcast, and listening to it has inspired two topics for me to write about for this blog. This piece is the first of those two topics. Looking through the podcasts of Science Vs. provides an interesting window into what scientific topics were breaking out of scientific studies and journals, and into popular conversation. If you listen to that back catalog, to my eyes (or in this case ears), you will find a recognizable pattern in some of the episodes. It seems as if every six months to a year, a new diet or exercise trend will sweep through the news and social media, promising great things.

When a podcast like Science Vs. takes a close look at this new trend, there tends to be a familiar train of events I’ve heard so many times I can write a template for them (by chance if anyone who works on Science Vs. ever reads this feel free to use this template). Some scientific study is published that point to a potential benefit of some food, diet, or exercise routine, but the study is either small, flawed, or not definitive in its conclusion. Leveled-headed people in the scientific community think the study is worth following up on to test its results, but scientific rigor is boring and ill-suited to generating eye-catching, click-baiting, ad selling headlines. So, news agencies, social media influencers, celebrities, and more jump on the new trend bandwagon and tell everyone who will listen that this new thing will change their life. This new trend is a one stop shop to cure all your ills and ease all your ailments, it’s so easy and simple, and it only requires a small investment in whatever food, workout equipment, or bogus health bracelet is the new trend. What’s a little money compared to your well-being? Frankly, you’d be a fool not to take advantage of this new trend while you have the chance. 

Only later does thorough scientific examination ruin everything. It’s easy to write a headline claiming miraculous things without any evidence to support those claims, especially if there is a financial incentive to be sensationalistic. Slowly, but inexorably, other studies and more experts weigh in the new trend, raining on everyone’s parade. As it turns out, the benefits of this new fad were widely overblown. Initially people either deliberately or inadvertently misrepresented or exaggerated evidence, and the more people talked about the new health trend, the wilder and more outlandish the claims became. As those wild claims get debunked, and the wondrous benefits promised turn out to be mundane or nonexistent, enthusiasm for the new fad slowly dies down. 

But fear not! Almost as if on cue, as one trend fades away, another swoops in to take its place. The old trend is quickly forgotten by almost everyone, and the new, new trend promises to be even better than the last. It sounds so stupendous that it’s almost…unbelievable? 

On and on this cycle goes, with each new idea gaining traction, being challenged, fading away, and being replaced with the next one. The obvious question to ask is why? Why has this cycle developed the way it has in the US? Like with everything else in life, there are a lot of factors interacting and pinging off one another. To start with, the US in the early 21st century is still a capitalist society addicted to materialism and wasteful consumption. The best and most succinct way I have ever heard American consumerism described was by a Christian monk on a TV show years ago when he said (I’m paraphrasing a little): “America isn’t about meeting needs, it’s about creating needs and selling the solution.” The American economy is predicated on people being dissatisfied with their lives, and the only solution provided for their dissatisfaction is endless spending. The revolving door of one diet or exercise craze after another is an extension of this system. 

That explains the incentive for people who make money off of these trends, what about the people spending money? Part of the motivation for following every trend is that dissatisfaction I just mentioned, but I believe another is a basic fear of aging and death that people are afraid to confront or acknowledge. Don’t misunderstand me, I’m not saying a healthy lifestyle is a bad thing, being as healthy as possible can extend the length and quality of your life markedly. I’m talking about people avoiding the unavoidable truth that try as they might, they will not escape the cold hand of the reaper forever. 

There is another factor that drives people to follow every health fad they encounter: it sounds easy. The allure of finding a simple, low effort solution to improve one’s health is strong enough that people are willing to accept a lot of baseless claims. People are looking for a simple, one step solution to their health, but that is illusory. So, they go from trend to trend, each time thinking this is the solution they have been looking for. You know what probably is the closest thing to one answer for all your health concerns? Moderation and self discipline. However, that takes work, and a lot of people don’t want to commit to that. Instead, they keep getting suckered into one trend after another. I won’t lay the blame entirely on the people who follow these passing fads. Not only is American society consumerist to a fault, it’s also a society that increasingly overworks and underappreciates the people living in it. It’s understandable that people who are exhausted search for something simple that doesn’t require a lot of effort. The more I look closely at American society, and perhaps western civilization more broadly, the more systemic issues I find. None of those issues have simple solutions, they all require root and branch changes to our cultural values and assumptions.

So far, I’ve been discussing trends that promise positive results, but this cycle applies equally well to negative trends too. It’s obviously more difficult to make money by telling people to not do something, but how many times have we all seen examples of studies taken out of context or exaggerated leading to scaremongering headlines about the dangers of such and such. Then eventually, enough time passes for whatever people were frightened of to not seem so scary anymore.

Part 2:

Earlier I mentioned that there are a lot of people who benefit financially or otherwise from perpetuating this cycle of constantly changing diet and exercise crazes. Some of those involved could be cynical manipulators, fully aware of what they are doing. Others, however, could be genuine in their belief that each and every idea they embrace works as promised. Just because someone helps perpetuate a cycle doesn’t mean that they can’t be caught in that same cycle.

By this point, some readers might be wondering what I am suggesting with this piece. Should we all become extreme skeptics and scoff at every new health trend we see? No, that could be just as counterproductive. Living in an age where so much research changes what we thought we knew about health and medical science is both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, it helps us improve our society by disproving old assumptions. On the other hand, this also leads to a lot of confusion, and confusion can be taken advantage of. Some of the diet and exercise trends that people embrace can be beneficial, and the desire to live better is not a bad thing. So, if the weight of evidence from reputable sources suggests that something new is good for you, it might be a good idea to try it. Just be careful not to be sucked into a cycle of accepting baseless and outlandish claims. There are two useful maxims to remember. The first is this: If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The second in latin is nihil sub sole novum, in english it’s, “there is nothing new under the sun.” Which means that humanity has been around a long time and has tried just about everything, and if there were some miracle remedy that helped with everything, we probably would have found it by now. 

For those who have read previous entries in this blog such as this one I often try to give advice and provide insight. Hopefully, my tone is that of someone who is concerned, not as pretentious or holier than thou. I don’t claim to be better or more wise than others, we all have our faults and our blind spots that can be hard to see from our perspective. My goal with much of my writing is to provide an outside perspective, with the goal of helping others. I hope for some readers some day, I succeed in that goal. 

Finding Your Bearings in a Chaotic News Cycle

Author’s Note: Before reading I just wanted to let the reader know that these blog pieces are always a compromise between explaining an issue or idea as fully as it deserves, and making it short enough that people can actually read it in a short time. I hope I succeed in striking that balance most of the time, but what you’re about to read was a challenge. Not only is the subject matter extremely complex and a potential minefield, but also for the multiple themes I’m trying to tie in. I hope I juggled all the themes and avoided the minefields enough to make what you’re about to read insightful and informative. Although, I will admit this piece has certainly crossed the boundary from blog post to short essay. What can I say, some things are owed a longer word count than others.

Preface:

Here’s something that’s not controversial in any way. The 21st century news environment is a tidal wave of over-stimulation. That fact isn’t news to anyone. Do I really need to comment on this phenomena, when so many other more qualified people than me have done so? Actually, I’m not, or at least, I hope to approach the issue of news over-stimulation from a different angle. While everyone understands in their bones how chaotic, fickle, and contradictory our current news cycle is, I don’t think people have really sat down and contemplated the implications of how that cycle changes them. Or maybe the question I should be asking is, what is it about human behavior or needs that has birthed this news cycle into existence?

I believe one of those needs is for reality, and by extension current events, to be explainable, simple even. A continuation of this desire is for the news to be presented in a way that agrees with or reinforces whatever preconceived biases a person has. For every person, however, there is a differing stance on an issue. Fortunately or unfortunately for us, with the rise of the digital age there is someone out there willing to reinforce whatever viewpoint a person can think of. A natural result of this is that there are always people or institutions that cater their editorial line to people’s opinions, rather than reporting the facts to the best of their ability. This isn’t new, that sort of bias in reporting events has been around since human communication, but the sheer glut of conflicting information in the 21st is a novelty. 

Again I’m not the first person to point this out, but this system has led to a complete communication breakdown in global society. With the sheer variety of perspectives, from honest journalism attempting to convey the facts, to biased sources bending the facts as far as they can to fit their narrative, to misinformation designed to help a cause or hinder it, to misinformation creating chaos for chaos’ sake. It’s impossible to establish common ground when everyone’s construction of reality is based on totally different information and pretenses. Even assuming that people had the desire to find varied news sources with different opinions (which I doubt they do), there simply isn’t enough time in the day for people to consume everything. I don’t know what the solution to this problem is, because I still believe in a free society and a free press, and authoritarian control of information and the media isn’t the answer. All I do know is that our current system of reporting the news, or fabricating the news, and the way people consume media has eroded our ability to debate with civility, and it has obliterated the nuance and complexity that exists everywhere.

As vexing and disappointing as all of this is to witness, I do understand the desire for simplistic news that confirms what we already think. Something I’ve come to appreciate more as I’ve grown older is that paying close attention to global history as it is happening is a luxury most people can’t afford. As a kid studying history I often was left confused when I would find accounts of people not reacting to or caring about monumental events that occurred during their lifetimes, or at least not caring as much as I thought was appropriate to the occasion. Well, for one thing, I was looking on with the benefit of hindsight, we can’t always tell in the present what events will have earth shattering consequences in the future. More importantly, most people in the past didn’t have the energy to care about important historical events, they were much more concerned with their immediate needs of themselves and their families. Two parents living in poverty taking care of their children understandably have to devote most of their time and attention to sustaining and providing for their family. I’m sure many more people would be seasoned and erudite followers of current events, if only they had the time. Even though I live in comparably comfortable circumstances when looking at the extremes of poverty that exist in the world, I still feel a lingering sense of guilt that I can devote so little of my attention to following the news that’s happening all over the world. It makes sense when people do look at what’s happening, they want a narrative that’s easy to understand, and doesn’t take them out of their mental comfort zone. So, they often like to consume media that agrees with their views, but this, I believe, can lead to a pernicious train of thinking that can be hard to arrest once it has begun. 

The world doesn’t stop, or slow down, and events of import happen whether we are ready for them or not. As I explained, even keeping up with the present is exhausting, even more so when you react to, consume, and commentate on current events. I think people get so caught up with this constant churn, voicing their opinion and arguing with those who disagree, that they never take the time to ask some simple questions. What is it that I believe and why? Am I prone to simplifying events to fit my preconceptions? Do I wait to pass judgment or form an opinion on something until I have enough information? Or do I jump to conclusions without much consideration or even confirmation that what I’m reacting to actually happened? Do I get sucked into the controversy of one event and then move onto the next one once the news has moved on? 

I was initially inspired to write this piece after watching the chaotic and fractious reactions people had after some recent events that are still ongoing as I write these words. These will be some difficult waters we are about to wade into, waters wiser people than me might warn me to avoid altogether. On the other hand, the reason I write is just as much to help myself make sense of reality as I hope it does the same for the readers. The subject I’m about to talk about is controversial, and stirs passions on all sides, but I hope I have just enough sagacity to make it through unscathed.

Introduction: The Minefield

I wanted to talk about the devastating October 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel, and the equally devastating Israeli reprisals against terrorist groups and Palestinian civilians trapped in the tiny and crowded Gaza Strip. As difficult as the subject is to discuss, I think it perfectly highlights what I’ve been talking about, how people get sucked into the news cycle and venomously criticize anyone they disagree with, before they take any time to think about what they’re saying and why. Furthermore, on a personal level, I was left frustrated by the way people reacted to these terrible events, because I thought they were thinking too narrowly and missing an important point, as I shall explain in just a moment. 

Before getting into the discussion, however, I wanted to make some very big and very important disclaimers. Number one, I am a rank amateur when it comes to knowledge about Israel and Palenstine, I am by no means an expert. My only knowledge of recent Israeli history comes from a couple of books on the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur war, and a handful of lectures from The Great Courses series on modern war since the end of WWII and the Middle East in the 20th century. So I’m going to stay vague enough to write about what I know, and if some topics appear to get short shrift that does not mean they are not important or worthy of consideration, it simply means that I do not know them well enough to speak on them. If I am unsure about something I will make it clear, and I hope I avoid any obvious errors. The second disclaimer relates to a question the reader might have, when it comes to the Israel/Palestine conflict, whose side am I on? To be honest, I’m not really sure. I have some bedrock principles on the issue. I believe that Israel and Palestine both have the right to exist as separate and sovereign states, but beyond that I am too confused and unsure to know how I feel about such a messy region with an equally messy history. I hope that doesn’t come across as faux intellectualism, trying to sound smart when I’m actually just being obtuse and difficult. That is not my intention, but I am digressing. The second disclaimer I wanted to stress is that none of what I am about to say is in any way a justification or an excuse for anyone that has committed atrocities or crimes against humanity. I condemn terrorism and indiscriminate violence against civilians equally in this conflict. 

The reason I was frustrated by people’s reaction to this conflict is that, as usual, people are quick to assign blame to this group or that person or that institution. As simple as it would be, I can’t ascribe to such a black and white interpretation of events. I’m sure I will repeat this a million times until I die, but there is simply too much complexity and nuance in the world for something to be so simple. More importantly, when people say “This conflict is an all Israel’s fault,” or “If the Palesitnians had done this and not done that other thing none of this would have happened,” or “Western imperial powers need to stop meddling in the region,” I think they are missing a broader point. All the behavior we are witnessing, from the fear, anger, violence, mutual atrocities and bloodletting, creating propaganda and counter-propaganda, none of these things are exclusively Israeli or Palestinian problems, these behaviors are fundamental to who we are as a species. There are two things I want the reader to consider before moving on: the first is how quickly in human events the oppressed can become the oppressor. You’d think being victimized or brutalized would teach people to be more compassionate, but most of the time you’d be wrong. The second thing to consider, and this is closely related to the first, is that people can be simultaneously victimized and victimizers, they are not mutually exclusive. It would certainly make things easier, but life isn’t easy. There are rarely clear cut good guys and bad guys in the world. Hopefully the reader won’t mind, but I think a quote from my own book is relevant here. I was discussing attitudes individuals or groups might have when dealing with conflict, and how they might develop the attitude of “everything is justified when we do it to you, nothing is justified when it is done to us,” (at least I think that’s an exact quote, it’s been a while since I read my own book). 

Perspectives: A Prelude

When people support an unflinching and immovable view of a conflict, say for example, someone who is extremely pro-Palestine, they will often point to the atrocities and unjust practices of the Israelis against Palestinians as a reason to condemn Israel, and Israelis in general. I’m not denying that Israel has committed atrocities and injustices, there are so many of them that they require no exaggeration to be alarming. However, and as I have said before, I think people miss a broader point when they deconstruct nuance in favor of a simple view of a complicated issue. To try and inject some nuance back into the Israel-Palestine conflict, I wanted to examine different perspectives on this issue. I will start in no particular order with Israel, second Palestine, third a brief look at Israel’s Arab neighbors, and finally western powers like the US that support Israel. To reiterate, I’m an amateur and none of this is a justification for anything. 

After the brutal October 7th, 2023 terrorist attacks against Israel in which more than a thousand people were killed, many people were shocked by what they viewed as inexplicable brutality on the part of Israel against Palestinians in Gaza in an attempt to defeat Hamas militarily, who carried out the attack. It took no time at all for Israel to exact their vengeance in blood for the deaths of their own civilians when they began their attacks against the Gaza strip. I for one, however, do not find their behavior inexplicable. That’s not because I support Israel’s indiscriminate reprisals, I categorically do not, I’m just extremely cynical. I think if you put any demographic group under the same pressures and circumstances as the Israelis found themselves in October 2023, I would not expect them to behave any better. It’s human nature to lash out with indiscriminate and desperate violence when wounded and threatened. I think a lot of Americans specifically angry at Israel’s response to a brutal terrorist attack were either too young to remember 9/11, weren’t even born yet, or if they were old enough they seem to have forgotten how the US reacted. On 9/11, before the towers had even fallen, there were already Americans baying for blood. It’s shocking to watch some of the footage of people in New York as the attacks are happening calling for reprisals before they even know for sure who is responsible. Shortly after 9/11, the US began an invasion and occupation of Afghanistan that lasted for 20 years before it ended in ignominious retreat and failure. One can make the case that this was justified, at least initially, that in the heat of anger and fear America wanted to find the people responsible for the attacks and do whatever it took to punish them. However, in the spring of 2003, the US also invaded Iraq, which was justified on completely bogus claims that Saddam Hussein supported terrorist organizations, and that the Iraqi regime was building weapons of mass destruction. That isn’t hindsight talking, there were people pointing out these bogus claims at the time. This isn’t to say that Saddam Hussein and his regime was guiltless, it was a brutal and repressive dictatorship, but it also doesn’t justify an invasion based on lies. But such was America’s fear and paranoia that even more than a year after 9/11 the invasion of Iraq had widespread support, and only became unpopular after it, like Afghanistan and other US invasions before, became a long and difficult quagmire. The point being, how different was the Israeli response in 2023 to terrorism from the US response in 2001 and 2003? Let’s also remember hundreds of thousands of people ultimately died as a result of the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and neither country is better off for it by any metric.

Also, there is something else worth remembering. Most of the victims of the October 2023 attacks in Israel were killed at extremely close range, and often after horrifying atrocities were committed against them and anyone around them. What I’m about to say will be graphic, but it needs to be said. Parents were killed in front of their children, children were killed in front of their parents. Bodies were mutilated, women were gang-raped before being murdered. In at least one instance a Hamas terrorist called his own family to brag about how many people he had killed so far using the phone of the person he had just killed. That’s barely scratching the surface, the atrocities are so numerous and so depraved it literally compels people to disbelief, even when there is mountains of video evidence. Why is there mountains of video evidence you might ask? The terrorists filmed themselves committing these atrocities and posted them online. Human history is littered with this sort of brutality, but from what I’ve studied the October 2023 attacks in Israel remind me of the Rape of Nanking in 1937 and many of the testimonies that truth commissions gathered in the late 1990s after the Guatemalan Civil War. I’ll leave this vague enough for the reader to infer the rest, but let’s just say that in all three of the cases I just mentioned the worst horrors were visited upon pregnant women.

When something so horrible happens to a nation, can you really expect people to behave rationally? Would you respond with level headed thoughtfulness if someone you knew or cared about was murdered and their body set on fire afterwards as their killers filmed the whole thing and then posted it online for bragging rights? Can you imagine a version of ourselves that didn’t respond with violent anger to such a provocation? Of course, as many readers might already be aware, this is the paradoxical pattern humanity is trapped in. An atrocity happens, people feel justified in committing a different atrocity to avenge the first one. That in turn leads the victims of the second atrocity to commit another to avenge the second one, and on it goes. A never-ending cycle of violence that we cannot escape.

One other thing before moving on, politicians. I’m by no means an expert on the Israeli government and security services that had to respond in the wake of the October 7th attacks, but I think I can make some broad points. When there is widespread public support for violent action in response to a terror attack, is it realistic to expect politicians and military leaders to urge caution and restraint? Politicians are people too, and they might be just as swept up in the mood of national anger as ordinary citizens. Even more importantly, could a politician survive politically or physically, if they denied the reprisals their constituents demanded? There is also a self-serving and selfish component to this question. Whether or not it is justified, people might blame their leadership for letting a terrorist attack happen in the first place. The most basic social contract between a people and their government is some reasonable guarantees of physical safety from outside threats, and a devastating terrorist attack can be seen as a failure on the government’s part to uphold their part of the bargain. So, politicians might be eager to shift the conversation away from their potential missteps, and toward what they are doing to avenge the victims of terror. It’s a depressingly cynical calculation, but do you honestly expect most politicians anywhere on Earth to behave differently? Usually, the only type of person to make it into the highest rungs of political power were egocentric and self-serving anyway, and they are quick to conflate their own political survival with the interests of the government they represent. Which again, just to repeat the point in case you missed it, that’s not an Israeli problem, or a Palestinian problem, that’s a human problem.

Perspectives

I thought all of that was worth pointing out, but let’s return to a summary of the historical perspective a hypothetical Israeli might have about their country and its place in the world. The events that led to the creation of Israel are extremely complicated and way above my pay-grade. Suffice it to say, while the Zionist movement of creating a Jewish state starting gaining traction at the end of the 19th century, and important steps towards nationhood like the Balfour Declaration were made by the British foreign office during WWI, the horror and trauma of the Holocaust in the Second World War helped tip the scales to creating Israel. From the moment of its inception, Israel has been menaced by hostile neighbors. The first war in Israel’s history saw them attacked on all sides by their Arab neighbors, who denied the existence of Israel for decades afterward. Since that first war in the late 1940s, there have been other full scale wars between formal militaries, and in each of those wars Israel found itself fighting on more than one front to maintain its territory. On top of the conventional wars, Israel has also been dealing with terrorist violence for decades as well. One might be able to argue that Israel is in part doing itself no favors, and helping to create the conditions that lead people to react violently against Israel. A view that certainly has its merits, and I will be discussing this more in a moment when I get to Palestine. However, to suggest that Israel is entirely to blame for the state of the region is foolish. You may have heard the expression: “It takes two to tango.” Well in this case it’s more like: “It takes multiple regional powers, international superpowers, state sponsored terror organizations, independent terror organizations, continuing local civil wars, refugee crises, and a helluva lot more to tango.” 

Israel is a small country with a small population surrounded by icy or openly hostile neighbors, with their backs to the Mediterranean. In the short history of their country they have had to fight off multiple existential threats to their existence, however that’s only the beginning. You can’t understand the history of Israel without understanding the horrors of the Holocaust. Much of the population of Israel in the late 1940s were refugees fleeing Europe after the Second World War. In the early 21st century that means much of the population is the children or grandchildren of Holocaust survivors. Can you see how the Holocaust, and the subsequent threats Israel has faced in its history might stamp a feeling of paranoia and constant threat on the psyche of a nation? I’ll never forget the countless photos of Holocaust survivors decades after WWII showing the tattoos they were branded with in concentration camps, a constant reminder of the attempt to exterminate the Jews. While the Nazis were the instigators of the Holocaust, obviously, I think in the popular understanding we forget how many people in multiple European countries were culpable in the crime of genocide as well. Anti-antisemitism is not a problem that was exclusive to the Nazis, it’s a phenomenon that’s literally millennia old, and it has never gone away. More importantly, anti-antisemitism has been resurgent in the 21st century, and October 2023 saw a huge spike in anti-Semitic violence worldwide after Israel’s attacks in Gaza. I’m certain that the people who carried these attacks were already virulent anti-Semites to begin with, and the attacks in Gaza just provided a convenient justification for their own brutality. This is just speculation, but that may have been part of Hamas’ goal in the first place, to provoke Israel into a violent reaction that helped isolate it diplomatically and increase anti-Semitic views all over the globe (Al-Qaeda may have had a similar goal with the 9/11 attacks, to provoke the US). With all that being said, can one see how Israel, and perhaps Jews all over the world, might feel as if they are a people under siege? 

Here’s the thing though, Palestinians could be justified in feeling the exact same way. Sometimes Palestinians are literally being besieged, and the Israelis are usually the ones doing the besieging (remember what I said earlier about being both victimized and victimizer)? One might ask, how can Israelis treat Palestinians the way they do? Aren’t they intimately familiar with the persecution of Jews throughout history? Haven’t they heard the golden rule so oft repeated in US schools, treat others the way you want to be treated? What’s going on? Once again, this is speculation on my part, but I think two impulses are key drivers of Israeli behavior towards Palestinians. The first is a fear of Palestinian terrorist organizations, and this combined with all their other fears, leads to over policing that can be counterproductive. The second impulse is a chauvinistic righteousness stemming from Israelis’ own sense of persecution and confidence from past military victories. 

With that said, let’s move onto the subject of Palestine. From my perspective the plight of the Palestinian people looks similar to that of the Jews before the creation of Israel, a displaced and often marginalized people without a nation that they can point to as their homeland. The influx of Jews after WWII immediately led to the displacement of Palestinians, forcing them to become refugees, and leading them to have a confused and uncertain status in the region ever since. I know far less about the history of Palestine than I do about ancient Judea, but they have a long relationship to the land as well, one with no less validity than the Israelis. To put it politely, the conditions that Palestinians under Israeli authority live in are difficult, and relations with their Israeli wards are strained at the best of times. 

I can absolutely understand many Palestinian grievances. Israel being created in territory they were living without so much as a consultation reeks of the worst excesses of European colonialism. In a sense, after the Holocaust one people was provided a state at the expense of another. Some commentators after the events of October 2023 pointed to the so-called “clash of civilizations,” the competing interests and ideologies of Western democracies and the Islamic world, as a crucial explanation for current events. I don’t know nearly enough to weigh in on the religious and political clashes of the region, but I have a theory about what might drive many Palestinians, especially in the Gaza strip, to violence. The situation in Gaza reminds me of the poor, densely packed districts of cities all over the world. Often, people in these inner cities are born into extreme poverty, they have few options to find valuable work, they are usually seen as a potential public menace, and subsequently find themselves the target of repression by security services. The justification for this repression follows a pattern of public moralizing that sounds something like: “these people are criminals, you have to contain them with a heavy hand to keep that criminality from spreading.” This moralizing follows an old pattern of thought, that some people are inherently criminal and it’s their own failings that leads them to crime. While I don’t deny individual agency, I believe that behavior is shaped by the circumstances into which we grow up. If someone is born into extreme poverty in a densely packed area, where they are marginalized and oppressed, and have few if any options of leaving, is it really a surprise that some people in those circumstances become radicalized and turn to crime or violence? One of the things that surprised me in late 2023 reading about Hamas fighters that had been killed in Gaza was how young so many of them were, many were 19 or 20 year old kids. It reminds me of an expression I read or heard, that one of the most dangerous forces in the world is a group of young men with nothing constructive to do. When you add the religious and political components of the region to the story, the potential for violence and misunderstandings is hard to avoid. Perhaps much of this violence could have been avoided if a Palestinian state had been created at the same time as Israel (I have no idea how plausible that was in the late 1940s). After learning about the destructive chaos that followed the partition of India and Pakistan (and what would eventually be Bangladesh), I’m not so sure. Much of the violence of partition came from people of different religious faiths turning on each other, and the fallout of that violence continues into the present day, with India and Pakistan also fighting several wars over the decades. In India there are extreme Hindu nationalists who want to bend over backwards to distort history and erase any traces of Islam in India. Who’s to say something similar couldn’t have happened between Israel and Palestine?

Very briefly, I wanted to look at what might be driving opinions of Israel among their Arab neighbors, at least one narrow aspect of that opinion. I know next to nothing about the Arab world and frankly there are enough ignorant people weighing in on this conflict with no understanding of what they’re talking about for me to add to the pile of uninformed, but very vociferous debate. There are the obvious religious tensions, and realpolitik concerns for territory, but there’s one thing I wanted to comment on. I thought the reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022 in what’s being called “the global south” was an interesting one. The fact that western countries are taking more notice of the concerns of the global south is a good sign to me, it shows that many developing countries of the world are finally being treated with some of the respect and consideration they have always deserved, but were not always granted by former colonial powers (I consider the US among those colonial powers). While most western countries were quick to denounce the unprovoked aggression by Russia and provide Ukraine with aid (a position I agreed with), many countries of the global south were either lukewarm in their denunciations of Russia, were pointedly neutral, or actively sided with Russia in conflict. Some of those reasons were also strictly cynical and due to realpolitik concerns, if a country receives resources, weapons, or aid from Russia they are unlikely to bite the hand that feeds them. Beyond those obvious considerations, I also believe that many of these countries have an almost instinctive dislike of Western Europe and the US, because of their histories of colonial domination. Even though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks exactly like 19th century European colonialism, many people in the global south either didn’t notice the similarity, or simply didn’t care. I think that attitude is one thread in the massive tapestry of Arab hostility towards Israel, they see the existence of Israel as an extension of Western European and American domination in the region. Even if that isn’t strictly true, or if the reality is actually far more complicated, it hardly matters. We should all know by now that what people believe to be true shapes current events just as much as what is actually true. 

Finally before concluding, I wanted to spend a little time looking at the United States’ continued support for Israel, and the reasons why it supports Israel. Once again, this area is not my strong suit so this will mostly be conjecture based off of what little I do know. As with many issues in geopolitics, and a lot of human decisions in general, the US’ motivations are a contradictory mix of greedy self interest and irrational emotions. Partly, the US has always been looking for as much stability in the region as possible so it can safely get oil exports and keep terrorism from spreading to US shores. On the other hand, the pro-Israel lobby in the US is powerful, has been around a long time, and it has rooted its ideals in a sizable portion of the US populace. For governmental leaders, that kind of popular pressure creates its own momentum that can affect policy. Even if cynical self interest would steer the US away from Israel as a partner in the region, the often very real sympathy for Israel’s situation cannot be dismissed lightly. After Israel’s reprisals in Gaza in 2023 I think support for Palestine grew in the US, but loyalties to Israel did not disappear. I don’t think supporters for either Israel or Palestine are entirely wrong, but on the flip side I don’t think either are entirely right. 

Conclusion: Solutions?

The discussion and themes of this piece leaves us with two important questions. The first being, is there anything that can be done to quell the violence between Israel and Palestine, and leave enough people satisfied in both groups to lead them to the conclusion that peace is the better option? The second question deals with our own behavior. Can we consume news in a way that leads to more thoughtful judgment, and can we demand unbiased and thoughtful journalism from the news sources we do consume? 

Starting with Israel and Palestine, I’m not sure there is some magic formula or idea that can solve this conflict quickly and peacefully. There is simply too much bad blood, too many real and imagined atrocities committed by all sides for anyone to forgive and forget easily. I think like most conflicts in human history, resentments will bubble and sometimes boil over, until enough time passes for passions to cool and a new part of the world becomes a new source of never-ending trouble. It would be a mistake to use history as a point by point roadmap for the present or future, but if you look at general trends one of humanity’s favorite activities throughout time is killing each other over our differences. To demonstrate the sameness with which atrocities and oppression can create a cycle of violence, I have a quote for the reader: “The Palestinians, yet again, had risen in revolt. For years, it turned out, they had been stockpiling weapons, preparing strongholds, excavating underground refuges and tunnels.” This quote sounds a little odd, but clearly it’s describing Hamas before their terror attack in Israel in 2023, right? Actually, it isn’t. That quote is from Pax War and Peace in Rome’s Golden Age by Tom Holland (the historian not the actor). All I did was change the word “Judeans” to “Palestinians.” The quote is describing a revolt by the Judeans that occurred during the reign of the Roman Emperor Hadrian in the second century CE. I was reading Pax in October 2023 and I was shocked at how people in similar circumstances can react in similar ways, even when separated by thousands of years and a huge leap forward in technology. Perhaps someday in the future Israel and Palestine will become relatively calm and safe places to live, but that doesn’t mean the larger problem of humanity being violent toward one another will be fixed.

Earlier, I said in situations such as the one in Israel in October 2023, politicians might be caught up in the atmosphere of anger and fear. They might also be equally motivated to embrace violent reprisals to deflect criticism away from themselves. For political leaders in Israel and Palestine, there is another reason why war is the easier, and for them personally, the safer option. Anwar Sadat, the third president of Egypt was assassinated in 1981. The assassin was an extremist Egyptian, motivated to kill Sadat because of Sadat’s negotiations with Israel in the late 1970s. In 1995, the Israeli Prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, was also assassinated. His assassin was an extremist Israeli, angered by Rabin’s negotiations with the PLO and the signing of the Oslo accords. Why take the risk of trying to make peace when there is a chance that you might be murdered by one of your own people? It would be far easier to continue the cycle of violence and let less important people die in your place. The extremists on both sides of this unending conflict have erected so many roadblocks on the way to peace it’s impossible to see past them from our vantage point. 

To end this piece, it’s time to circle back to the beginning, how we consume news, how the news is presented to us, and how this codependent relationship feeds off of and strengthens itself. People want simple narratives to explain history and current events. We all have difficult and busy lives, and paying careful attention to world events takes time and energy that many of us don’t have. It makes sense that some people gravitate towards a perception of reality that is easy to understand, one with clearly established good guys and bad guys, leaving no room for complications or complexity. It would be nice if that were true, but reality isn’t simple. Reality is messy and difficult, with shades of responsibility, complicity, and blame shared by everyone. When people desire a simplified version of what’s happening, and news sources cater to that desire, it begins a destructive cycle. People only want to hear what reinforces their assumptions (assumptions that were often made in haste initially), and the sources providing the news can’t risk losing their audience to someone who will reinforce their assumptions. Refusing to see nuance and complexity makes the possibility of constructive dialogue remote. 

This dynamic has always been around, even when the only communication medium was the spoken word, but the digital age has absolutely accelerated it. Not only is there a news source to cater to every bias, people expect you to have a strong opinion about every issue immediately. Once someone voices a strong opinion about something publicly, they might feel foolish changing their mind, or altering their views. Rather than admitting they might have spoken in haste, they could ignore any contradictory news and double down on what they already said. My advice to the reader is this; it’s okay to withhold judgment until you have time to process what’s going on. You don’t need to form a strong and instant opinion on everything, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind when you get new or better information. It does not make you less intelligent, in fact, I think changing our views based on new information or changing circumstances shows maturity, not weakness or foolishness. Additionally, there is nothing wrong with being so confused or conflicted that you don’t know what to think. It would benefit the reader to ask a few questions as they are consuming news before they respond to it. The first should always be, is what I’m reacting to even real? It is getting harder and harder to differentiate between actual events being reported and misinformation, and at least some diligence is required of all of us. Another question to ask is: How biased is the news source I am consuming, and in what ways am I biased? Finally, I think it would be wise for the reader to ask themselves: do I believe in a position because I have thought critically about the issue, or am I jumping on a popular bandwagon? 

I have just a few final pieces of advice and food for thought before concluding for good. There were a lot of people critical of Israel’s violent reprisals in Gaza after the October 7th terrorist attacks. They were indeed violent, and thousands of innocent civilians were killed, thousands more wounded and hundreds of thousands more were displaced or made homeless. I’m not discounting or downplaying those facts. I do have a question, though. How sure are you that if you were put in the same situation as Israel, or in any country that faced a massive terror attack, that you would not react with a desire for vengeance? Do not underestimate the power fear and outrage can have on a group of people, especially when they work together. I know the simplicity of a narrative with good guys and bad guys, evil vs. good is alluring, but remember this: the universe doesn’t owe you anything, least of all a simple narrative to explain why people behave the way they do. Finally, don’t make the mistake of demonizing a group of people, that is a road that can lead to some very dark places, and it ignores the violence we are all capable of. Just as importantly, don’t romanticize a group of people either. They’ll eventually end up disappointing you, or you will forever be left ignoring or excusing awful things so you can cling to your romantic fantasy.    

Favorite Books 2023

Last year, I made a small post about the website Shepherd. It’s a great site that’s only a couple of years old and still growing, and it helps authors get attention for their own books and the books they like to read.

This year, Shepherd asked authors to create a list of their three favorite books that they read in 2023. Each book I chose I already wrote a discussion or review for on this blog, but I think Shepherd is worth checking out, it helps the website grow and it helps me get some attention for my book as well.

https://shepherd.com/bboy/2023/f/jordan-neben

https://shepherd.com/bboy/2023

How to React When People Disappoint

Introduction:

Note for the Readers: In this piece I will be discussing some difficult subjects, like domestic abuse and sexual assault, but only in the vaguest and briefest terms. However, if this is a sensitive subject for you then please be aware. Also, I was inspired to write this piece based on some current news events in the US when this was written, however,  I won’t go into specifics of those events and as usual I will deploy some hypotheticals to better future-proof this piece.

Question, how should you react when you find out someone you have a positive relationship with did or had done something reprehensible to someone that wasn’t you? This relationship can be direct, like a friend, family member or child. It could be with a coworker or acquaintance. Or, this question can also apply to a parasocial relationship, like a celebrity or other notable person that you follow or admire. 

The reason I ask this question is because there is a certain percentage of people who respond in the worst way possible when they are confronted with this issue. How do they respond? With denial, cover their eyes and ears, see no evil hear no evil, “la la la I’m not listening to you” kind of denial. Think of the mother who says that her child was always such a good little boy when they are revealed to be an ax murderer. Think of the celebrity who defends their co-star from a television show when they are convicted of sexual assault. Think of the loyal fans when they ignore an artist’s domestic abuse of their spouse so they can continue to be fans of their work guilt free. Think of all the people who blame survivors for speaking out rather than the perpetrators for the crimes they committed. One will always find this subset of deniers, people who would rather entertain a fantasy than confront reality, but this begs another question: why? I believe that there are 3 principal reasons for this. The first two are more general, while the third applies in a particular context, as I shall explain.

The Big Three:

The first thing that can drive people to deny someone’s wrongdoing is because it forces them to re contextualize their entire relationship with the wrongdoer. When you find out someone you liked or had positive interactions with did something deplorable it tarnishes those positive experiences, besmirching what might have been pristine before. Now recalling that person and your relationship with them will always be bittersweet, which is an understandably difficult thing to accept. Imagine you supported a musician for years, going to concerts, buying merchandise, discussing them online, only for it to be revealed that the musician you loved had been abusing their spouse the entire time. What do you do? Do you publicly condemn them, get rid of all their music and merchandise you have, and refuse to listen to them again? Do you quietly move on to another artist with a less toxic reputation (less toxic at this particular moment at least)? Or, do you deny or downplay the truth so you can continue to enjoy your favorite musician? There are more ways to respond than the ones I just listed, but is it more clear why some people chose denial? It’s a selfish impulse to be sure, in the case of the musician and their fan, the fan cares more about their personal relationship to the music than how the person who made the music behaves. However, it is demanding a lot of a person to let go of something or someone that is meaningful to them in order to uphold an abstract principle. 

The second reason people chose denial is closely related to the first. This second reason doesn’t apply in all cases, but it’s common enough to mention. Guilt. Earlier, I said finding out a person’s wrongdoing forces you to recontextualize your relationship with them and how you remember them. It might also force you to look back and wonder if there were signs that you either missed or chose to ignore. How many red flags did you see and did nothing? Could you have prevented something bad from happening if you had spoken up?

I’m not suggesting that we all start taking responsibility for the actions of others, but anyone with even a shred of morality would have to be asking themselves these questions. For some, it’s infinitely easier to create a wall of denial and avoidance than to confront the questions of their conscience.  

I’ve been saying that people “choose” denial, as if they are weighing the options of whether or not to do so carefully in their head, but the reality is often much more subtle and unconscious. People rarely make decisions such as embracing denial after rational and careful introspection. If they did, they likely wouldn’t be in denial to begin with. However, people absolutely can choose to deny, and that relates to the third topic I wanted to discuss. Why would someone willfully choose to deny someone’s crimes or wrongdoing? Perhaps in an attempt to defend the wrongdoer, but it could just as easily be to protect themselves, or to protect an institution. Imagine you are high up in a political party, or a religious hierarchy, or in a position of authority for a rich corporation or other financial institution, or, on a smaller scale, maybe you’re a cop. If someone of equal power and authority as yourself behaves criminally, do you publicly admit that? What if that kind of criminality isn’t restricted to an individual, but is an institutional problem? Think of what the #metoo movement revealed about the film industry, or when a cop commits a crime in the US and the worst punishment they get is paid administrative leave after an internal “investigation” found that the cop in question did nothing wrong. That kind of abuse and corruption can’t be hidden, it has to be actively denied, covered up, and ignored. Some people in these corrupt and abusive institutions are coerced or intimidated into silence, but plenty of people don’t have to be cajoled or threatened at all. A not insignificant number of people care far more about their own finances and position of authority than they care about protecting the innocent. Individuals such as this have no issue publicly denying what they know to be true. This kind of denial is entirely cynical, motivated only by self-serving interest.

Conclusion:

Is there anything that can be done to correct these three different motivations for denial? Starting with the third topic of discussion, I don’t have any sage advice. This cynical form of denial could only be curtailed if people were less greedy and power hungry, which if we look at all of human history as an example, that’s easier said than done. What about the other two reasons for denial that we discussed? As I said before, having to re-contextualize a positive relationship or confronting potential guilt are not easy things to do. It can be easier to reject the truth and blame the survivors of abuse than to admit that we don’t always know people as well as we thought. However, you must have the strength and the courage to face reality and change your opinion of a person when credible or provable evidence of their misdeeds are revealed. 

The way I see it, there are two important parts of becoming a mature adult with critical reasoning and decision making (this isn’t an exhaustive list, just the two that pertain to this discussion). The first is that we all need to be aware of the potential darkness and violence that are a part of all of our natures, and how that darkness can be unleashed. This is especially important for anyone in a position of power. It isn’t enough, however, to just be aware of the violent parts of our natures. We also need to commit ourselves to the never ending struggle of mastering that darkness everyday of our lives until the second we drop dead. The second part of maturity is realizing that not everyone is as committed to winning that struggle as you will be. Some people do the exact opposite and embrace that darkness and violence, and let their worst impulses shape the contours of their entire existence. When someone you know does something inexcusable, you need to be able to disavow and cut ties with that person. If that means poisoned memories and perhaps a lingering feeling of guilt, so be it. Denying the truth doesn’t help you, or the person you’re covering for. It might feel like it, but can you ever grow, move on, or accept something when you won’t even admit that it happened? Denying a person’s wrongdoing chains you to that person and their actions far more than acceptance ever will.

When people you like disappoint, it’s not easy to come to terms with that. However, it’s when principles are tested the most, that they count for the most. 

Book Discussion of: All the Shah’s Men by Stephen Kinzer

Part 1: Summary

Once again for this piece I wanted to discuss a fascinating book I just finished reading about a moment that is little known in the US, but is well known in Iran. However, thanks to subsequent Iranian history and the state of current Iranian politics this event has been painted with, let’s say, a creative, but not necessarily factual brush in Iran. I wish I could say altering history to fit the needs of contemporary political leaders is unique to Iran. However,  I’m digressing. All the Shah’s Men recounts the 1953 CIA planned coup, backed by the US and UK, that overthrew the Prime Minister of Iran, Mohammad Mossadegh. 

I’m going to try and give a very brief summary of the coup, the events that preceded it, and the historical consequences, so that people with no prior knowledge can have some context for the discussion. If you want to learn more about the first time the CIA tried out regime change in the Cold War, however, I absolutely recommend a couple books. The first is obviously All the Shah’s Men by Stephen Kinzer, which focuses exclusively on the coup and contains a lot of fascinating details. The second book is titled America and Iran: A History 1720 to the Present by John Ghazvinian. The 1953 coup is undoubtedly one of the pivotal moments in US Iranian relations, and features extensively in America and Iran, but this book is much wider in scope and gives more context to the events before and after the coup. 

To make a very long story very short, the 1953 overthrow of Mossadegh was born in the post WWII fight for Iran to nationalize its oil resources and industry. For decades the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (which changed its name first to Anglo-Iranian and then eventually to British Petroleum (BP)), extracted vast amounts of oil while paying whatever Iranian government was in power a small pittance of the revenues, while refusing to allow Iranians to audit their accounts or let them into senior management positions. When Mossadegh became prime minister he championed oil nationalization to the absolute hilt, beginning a years long struggle between Iran, the oil company, and London, with Washington trying to act as a mediator (at least while Truman was in office). 

Mossadegh stubbornly refused to compromise with the British, whom I believe, and as I shall discuss more below, never negotiated in good faith anyway. When Mossadegh nationalized Iran’s oil they did not have any oil tankers, and so the British began an effort to prevent Iranian oil from being sold and shipped, depriving Iran of key revenue to force them to the negotiating table. While Mossadegh refused to budge, the economic and social pressures put on Iran helped break many people away from Mossadegh, and created an atmosphere of tension that could be exploited if one were so inclined. In the course of the legal and political wrangling for Iran’s oil, Iran broke diplomatic relations with Britain, and expelled their embassy from Tehran. Which meant the network of spies and subversives the British had cultivated in Iran would go to waste, unless they handed that network to the CIA. 

Two elections outside of Iran proved instrumental in allowing the coup to happen. One was Winston Churchill returning to power in London (a conservative old-school imperialist), he was absolutely in favor of getting rid of Mossadegh through force. The second was Dwight Eisenhower being elected to the presidency. Eisenhower was also more conservative than the president he was replacing, and although he wasn’t initially in favor of the coup he was convinced most especially by the Dulles brothers; John Foster and Allen. John Foster becoming Eisenhower’s secretary of state, and Allen head of the CIA. So much groundwork had been laid for Mossadegh to be deposed that many people in the intelligence circles rejoiced when Eisenhower was elected, because they knew they could finally carry out the operation that they had been planning.

For the sake of brevity I won’t go into too much detail on the events of the actual coup itself. I will say that one of the American agents on the ground, and one of the men most responsible for the coup’s success, was a grandson of Theodore Roosevelt, Kermit Roosevelt. There were two attempts to get rid of Mossadegh, the first one failed, but the second attempt a few days later succeeded. While much of the planning for Mossadegh’s overthrow had been carried out by British and American intelligence services, it would not have been possible without an extensive network of Iranians from all walks of life, from journalists and religious leaders, but most especially army and police units more loyal to the Shah than Mossadegh. Some of these Iranians had genuine ideological convictions that propelled them to support the coup, on the other hand many of them had simply been bribed into loyalty. 

In the short term the removal of Mossadegh looked like a smashing success for US interests. In the long term, however, the 1953 coup looks like yet another foreign policy disaster in the long history of US foreign policy disasters. The continued US support for the Iranian Shah and his increasingly dictatorial rule in the years after 1953 helped harden anti-US opinion among many Iranians, and during the Islamic Revolution a justified fear in another US planned coup helped sow the seeds for the US embassy hostage crisis.

Part 2: Discussion

There are a few things I wanted to discuss after reading All the Shah’s Men. To start with, I wanted to examine the mindset of British and American policy makers and intelligence agents. Why did they come to the conclusion that overthrowing a foreign government was the right decision? What did they judge correctly, what did they judge incorrectly? Before doing that I want to make a couple of small disclaimers. The first one will be a familiar refrain for anyone who has read my book and other blog posts, but I think it’s important and is worth repeating. For simplicity I will be talking about “the British” and “the Americans,” but there are always differences of opinion and dissenting voices, there is no national hivemind that agrees on everything. To make this into a digestible blog post I’m simplifying people and events, and if you want to know more that’s why I recommend you read the books I mentioned above. Second, while I will be focusing on the British and Americans I hope this doesn’t come across as a Euro or Atlantic-centric worldview. Iranians did and do have their own agencies and agendas, and the story of Iran nationalizing its oil industry is one where Iran tried to restore some of its national agency. The reason I’m focusing on the British and Americans is because they believed they had the right to interfere with a foreign country to advance their own interests because they were great powers (in the case of the British they thought they were still a great power in the early 50s).

First I wanted to quickly discuss the mindset of the policy makers in the UK leading up to the 1953 coup. I’m about to make some pretty damning conclusions, and while I’m American and lambasting the British is practically a national sport, I promise I will broaden the critique further in the conclusion below. With that being said, if you wanted to find an absolutely perfect example of the term “unforced error,” you could find no better candidate than how British intelligence agents, foreign office dignitaries, and most of all Anglo-Iranian executives behaved during the oil nationalization crisis. 

In short, the British attitude toward Iranians and their perfectly legitimate demands for just compensation for the extraction of their own resources is unforgivably racist and myopically dismissive neocolonialist bullshit. It’s honestly shocking and more than a little depressing that people that are apparently intelligent, educated, and experienced can be so blinded by their own prejudices that it causes them to make such catastrophic blunders. It reminds me of nothing more than the British (again), getting their comeuppance for underestimating the Japanese before the Second World War in the Pacific, and for the same bigoted reasons. In the case of Iran, this isn’t just me looking back in the 21st century with hindsight as my guide. Plenty of people at the time knew the British were making a mistake and repeatedly pleaded with them to negotiate and make honest compromises. The British pretended to make concessions, but almost always if you read the fine print of these “concessions” the intention was always to keep as much power, money, and oil flowing into British hands and deny the Iranians as much as they could get away with. The British strategy of “negotiations” in the years leading up to the coup reminds me of one of my favorite influences as a writer, the pod-caster and author Mike Duncan. In his podcast series on the Mexican revolution, Duncan was discussing the famous revolutionary Emiliano Zapata. Duncan described Zapata as fiercely stubborn and unwilling to negotiate with the revolving door of regimes that came and went during the Mexican Revolution. However, Duncan believes that often Zapata was right to be stubborn, because none of the people he was negotiating with were doing so in good faith. While obviously the situation in Iran in the 1950s was vastly different, often the same criticism is leveled at Mossadegh, that he was incredibly stubborn himself, but I feel the same way about Mossadegh as Duncan did about Zapata. Throughout the whole crisis the British never acted honestly, and as they offered token concessions with one hand, with the other they blockaded Iranian ports with the Royal Navy and planned potential military interventions. Should you compromise with someone who would sooner see you overthrown or dead? In the end, I believe that Dean Acheson, Secretary of State under Truman, said it best when he parodied a famous Churchill quote to describe British blundering in this situation: “Never had so few lost so much so stupidly and so fast.”

Next, I wanted to discuss why US policy makers came to the conclusion that overthrowing Mossadegh was their best, perhaps only option, to stabilize Iran. The short and simplified answer is the Cold War American hysteria that every country that wasn’t unshakably loyal to the US was a sneeze away from falling to Soviet domination. In hindsight it’s hard not to see American behavior during the Cold War both at home and abroad as an overreaction and a disgusting betrayal of the rights and values that supposedly made America the “good guys” in the Cold War, but I am viewing all of this with the benefit of knowing how it all turns out. Had I been alive at the time would I have been able to see past the fog of fear? Some of that fear was overblown propaganda, but some of it was justified. This was the beginning of the atomic age and everyone was aware of the new existential threat that could end life on earth, a threat that has not gone away. Furthermore, in the days following WWII the Soviet Union was aggressively expanding, and the person at the helm of the Soviet system until he died was Stalin, a man responsible for tens of millions of deaths and one of the worst men of the 20th century, no small feat considering what a rogue’s gallery of terrible men the 20th century was. So, while I am also sharply critical of the 1953 coup, and I think most would agree that it was a huge mistake in the long run, and at the time of this writing Iran and America are a long way from even an icy diplomatic relationship, I think it’s harder to imagine at least the people in the Eisenhower administration behaving differently. 

I also believe the American Cold War paranoia and a binary obsession with the “free world” and “communism” also put blinders on even some of the most well informed and well connected Americans. Our obsession with halting communism blinded the US to the importance of developing world nationalism, and how mass movements might develop outside the narrow Cold War binary, say for example, religious movements. 

In All the Shah’s Men, Kinzer quoted several other authors, to show some of the different interpretations of the 1953 coup, and how the historiography of the event has changed over time. I’d also like to quote the author James F. Good. In this passage Good begins by talking about Mossadegh, but ends by perfectly summarizing why the United States decided that toppling Iran’s current government was preferable to negotiating with it.

“Mossadegh was no saint, as even his advisors recognized. He could be stubborn and narrow minded. Yet he was the most popular leader in modern times, at least prior to the [Islamic] revolution…If Mossadegh was a prisoner of the past—opposed to dictatorial rule, supportive of the constitutional government, hating foreign influence—the Americans were no less prisoners of the Cold War mindset that would not tolerate neutralism in the struggle against godless Communism.”

Finally, before concluding I wanted to quickly mention one more quote from All the Shah’s Men. For context, this book was released in the early 2000s, and the edition I read had a new foreword that was written in 2008. I’m sure if Kinzer released this book last week he would write the passage I’m about to quote differently. Before and during the coup the CIA had a vast network of Iranians on their payroll either directly or indirectly fomenting a propaganda campaign against Mossadegh. It turned out to be extremely effective, and Kinzer had this to say about it: “…their efforts proved how vulnerable an undeveloped society can be to a sustained campaign of bribery and destabilization.” The only word I would change in this quote would be undeveloped. If the past few decades of American politics have demonstrated anything, it’s that any society is vulnerable to a campaign of bribery and destabilization, especially if that society has a relatively free and unrestricted press. I would even argue that it’s a relatively cheap and easy way for one power to unsettle another. Why go to war with another country when you can just exploit and exacerbate the fault lines that exist in every society?

Part 3: Conclusion

For me, the coup the CIA carried out in 1953 (the agency would attempt many more in the Cold War), represents in spirit an attitude that is as old as human statecraft. More powerful states, fiefdoms, kingdoms, nations, whatever word you want to use tend to develop a chauvinistic attitude that they are allowed to interfere with weaker polities as it suits their interests consequence free. While I naturally talked about the UK and US and their attitudes leading up to Mossadegh’s ousting, I don’t think that imperial overconfidence is unique to these two countries at all. Iran itself has a history thousands of years old that has many times seen it as the center of great world empires subjugating other peoples, and as a colonial vassal being subjugated. 

This overconfidence might allow a state and its people the confidence and justification for imperial conquest, but the reason I call it overconfidence is because it’s a double-edged sword. If a powerful state starts believing that they have the right to trample weaker peoples when it suits them, and especially if the powerful state starts to see itself as superior and everyone else inferior, that attitude can often backfire in morbidly hilarious ways.

Something I’m starting to believe more about the CIA, and the psychology of people who planned and executed their attempted and successful regime changes, is that it was remarkably short sighted. If the United States wanted to promote democracy, and avoid the specter of communist takeover, is overthrowing democratic leaders and institutions a good idea? It doesn’t exactly sell the Western Democratic model when your pitch is “sure you can be democratic, as long as you do exactly what we want you to do at all times, and the second you don’t we’ll overthrow you and put a pliant dictator in your place.” I know none of this discussion can be separated from Cold War fear, and how justified it was or not, but I can’t help but feeling that this pattern that began in 1953 in Iran was a mistake we are still feeling the consequences of. Mossadegh himself had some very wise words that great powers would do well to heed in the future, if they want to avoid making similar blunders: “Abiding by law and respecting the rights of the weak not only would not diminish, but would greatly enhance the position and prestige of the strong.”

Links for All the Shah’s Men:

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/all-the-shahs-men-stephen-kinzer/1101126123?ean=9780470185490

https://bookshop.org/p/books/all-the-shah-s-men-an-american-coup-and-the-roots-of-middle-east-terror-stephen-kinzer/11438320?ean=9780470185490

Links for America and Iran:

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/america-and-iran-john-ghazvinian/1136585406?ean=9780307472380

https://bookshop.org/p/books/america-and-iran-a-history-1720-to-the-present-john-ghazvinian/13583637?ean=9780307472380